How Toulouse's Grand Final win dramatically impacts race for Super League with French club favourites

Toulouse Olympique are the 2025 Championship winners – and their victory over York Knights makes things very, very interesting in terms of who will be in Super League next season.

In reality, four clubs are fighting for three spots, with Salford Red Devils likely to drop out. That quartet are the newly-crowned champions in Toulouse, York, Bradford Bulls and London Broncos.

Three of those clubs – Toulouse, York and Bradford – believe they have a credible chance of making the top 12 in the IMG gradings system which would remove the need to go through the independent panel process that will ultimately decide who the two teams that expand the competition are in 2026.

Had York won the Grand Final, they were privately of the belief that they were really close to – if not in – the top 12, with the winners getting a precious 0.25 bonus points in the gradings system. The Knights are confident of making a huge jump in their score this year, when they were 15th on 12.42 points.

But Toulouse winning making things hugely compelling now. Sources at multiple clubs were of the belief that the French side were outsiders if it went down to the independent panel, but they now look to be well-placed to bypass that process altogether and get their spot in Super League back on merit.

There is a lot to be worked out when it comes to the finer details of the gradings, some of which will remain private until after the publication of the results later this month.

But there are a couple of key elements that lean into the fact Toulouse are now in the box seat for 12th spot in the gradings.

First and foremost, there were only 0.39 points between themselves and Salford Red Devils last year, and the Red Devils are going to drop by at least 0.25 points, thanks to the fact they breached RFL Operational Rules with their team selection at St Helens back in February. According to the gradings handbook, that means a sanction on your score.

Throw in the fact Toulouse have just gained 0.25 points with their Grand Final win, and that is a swing of 0.5 points before you even delve into anything else.

Salford’s overall performance score has dropped by 0.3429 courtesy of them trading a fourth-placed finish in 2022 for a 12th-placed finish this year, which means that swing between the clubs is fast approaching one whole point. Incidentally, Salford’s financial aspect of the grading is unlikely to look as bad as some expect.

That is because it uses the most recent year’s complete accounts, which in the Red Devils’ case, was the year ending November 2024.

But Toulouse are confident they are making huge strides in their score in multiple areas – and lifting the Championship trophy has potentially just swung it firmly in their favour to leapfrog the Red Devils.

Of course, that would then leave York, Bradford and London fighting for two spots through the independent panel. All three think they are a Super League club in waiting, and all three believe they should be in.

That means that come the announcement later this month, someone is going to be very unhappy indeed.